Friday, August 22, 2008

What the Brits Think About Our Economy

The UK's Telegraph gives a different persepctive on our stock market and economic woes with Should you put money on Uncle Sam?:

The market also has the tailwinds of a strengthening dollar and sliding oil price supporting it. So is now the time for British investors to re-examine Uncle Sam's stocks?

Stock market historian David Schwartz, who famously predicted both the slump in the Nasdaq after 2000, and the fall and rise after the September 11 attacks, is buoyant. "US markets generally do well in an election year, particularly in the second half, and it looks like the trend is continuing."


This outperformance has accelerated in the past three months. But is it likely to last?

On initial examination, the economic picture still looks grim. Although the US economy grew 1.9 per cent in the last quarter, meaning it is not yet technically in a recession (which requires two quarters of negative growth), most fund managers agree that one is imminent.

Andy Hollyman, fund manager on the Threadneedle American Equity fund, says: "In terms of all the indicators we are seeing, the US is in a recession. The payroll figures show rising unemployment. Corporate profits are down and the housing market is falling. All the drivers of the initial economic weakness are still present."

Now if it could be so good for us.

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