At present, the Shi’ite Arabs and Sunni Arabs each believe they possess the strength to vanquish the other. The Shi’ites tell themselves: “We’re 60% of the population; we have powerful militias and we actually control the government. We’ll be able to beat the Sunnis into submission.” Many Sunnis, on the other hand, believe that if they fight hard enough they will be able to regain the position of power they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein.
Unlike American politicians, Iraqi leaders do not calculate in terms of the next three or six months but take a long view over the next 30 or 60 years. What the Republicans and Democrats in Washington do not seem to understand is that neither side is going to compromise until they conclude that it’s a rational thing to do.
The military option is the only one America has left. The days of America’s ability to influence the Iraqi government, when Bremer called the shots, are gone. Most of the billions of dollars for reconstruction have been expended, so money has little sway. Military force has become the last arrow in the US quiver.
So, violence is all that is left to us? So, this mess is not about terrorists but native power groups?
The idea of American policy has nothing else but violence reminds me of a line from Isaac Asimov. "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." So, we should be surprised that we have incompetents running our Baghdad operations? We have incompetents making our Iraq policy and shaping our strategy.
Meanwhile, The Guardian reviews Journey into Islam: The Crisis of Globalisation by Akbar Ahmed. If Iraq is really about Iraqi Sunnis and Shias and not al Quaeda versus us, then we better get an idea of Islam. I wonder if our President and Vice President could learn anything from reading this book. I find this part of the review interesting:
Aligarh, seat of the university founded on the Oxbridge model by the great 19th-century Muslim reformer in British-ruled India, Sir Sayyid Ahmad Khan, stands for strengthening Islam by learning from the west. Deoband, a major madrasa in India, also founded in reaction to Islam's 19th-century crisis, stands for an almost opposite philosophy, one of asserting mainstream or orthodox beliefs and traditions. (Ahmed more or less equates this with the austere Wahhabi trend promoted by Saudi Arabia.) And finally Ajmer, shrine of the 12th-century Sufi saint Moinuddin Chishti, stands for a more quietist, mystical Islam, stressing inner calm, transcendence of earthly passion through direct apprehension of the divine, and openness to other forms of spirituality such as Hinduism and Buddhism.
Again and again Ahmed confronts the crisis of the Aligarh model on which he himself was brought up. Its leaders seem to have lost all conviction, or become little more than corrupt dictators manoeuvring, sometimes adroitly, between American power and an ever more stridently anti-American public opinion. At Aligarh itself his American companions find the students insecure, defensive and unfriendly, whereas at Deoband, once they break through an initial barrier of suspicion and reserve, they find great courtesy, hospitality and willingness to engage in dialogue. Their host and guide at Deoband is in fact the fire-breathing Aijaz Qasmi, who later morphs into an advocate of peace and a respectful Ahmed disciple.
Crudely summarised, Ahmed's message to western leaders is to rely less on Aligarh products like his younger self, and to engage in more direct dialogue with the Deobandis - those in the Muslim world who at first sight seem most fanatically hostile. (No doubt, if asked, he would also have advised the UK government not to fan an almost-extinct controversy back into flames by giving a knighthood to Salman Rushdie.) But on the personal level he discovers a mystic streak within himself and a strong affinity with the Ajmer model. In the end, his advice to Muslims is to seek a synthesis of all three: "The accepting nature of the Ajmer model must be buttressed by the commitment and fervour that Deoband can provide, along with the skill and dexterity to negotiate with governments, organisations and political parties that is characteristic of Aligarh." Perhaps his next book should be a Journey into the West, on which his fellow travellers will be students from the Islamic world.
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