U.S. President George Bush continues to preach "victory in Iraq." But the phrase rings hollow. Pouring 21,500 more American troops into Baghdad's anarchic streets and rural areas isn't likely to deliver a victory that has eluded 140,000 soldiers so far. War-weary Iraqis should be so lucky.
Rather, by ordering yet another troop "surge" even though a majority of Americans and even many Iraqis oppose it, and warning yesterday that "it's going to take a while," Bush hopes to run out his term without having to acknowledge defeat, then hand off the mess. As the execution of Saddam Hussein highlighted, Iraq's Shiite-led government is locked in a power struggle with the Sunni minority that U.S. guns alone can't resolve.
Bush would have done better to heed the rebuke frustrated American voters delivered when they handed the Democrats control of Congress last fall, and invest in a diplomatic "surge" instead of a military one.
Rather than pin excessive hopes on Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government – and U.S. firepower – Bush should have launched a concerted diplomatic drive to persuade Iran and Syria to stop fanning sectarian militancy, and to enlist the wider Arab world to press for an all-party compromise. And he should have conditioned U.S. political, military and economic support for al-Maliki on prompt delivery of national reconciliation, good governance and security. That was the sensible thrust of Bush's own Iraq Study Group recommendations, which also urged redeploying U.S. forces next year from Iraq to Afghanistan.
Instead, Bush continues to threaten Iran and Syria, and promote a military solution to what, at root, is a political problem involving Iraqis and their neighbours. That promises to mire U.S. troops in Iraq for years.
A clash between the White House and Congress now seems inevitable. So does a rising death toll in Iraq, where more than 50,000 Iraqis and 3,000 Americans have died in a $500 billion war.
There are lessons for Canadians in this sorry spectacle. We and our North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies must strive to shape a better political outcome in Afghanistan than Washington has in Iraq.