In these conditions, it is all too plausible that rattled politicians on both sides of the Atlantic will succumb to the temptation of populist protectionism, with China an easy scapegoat for rising unemployment in the West, and the Doha round a likely casualty from the diplomatic collateral damage.
These dangers are inevitably greatest in the United States, where the febrile political atmosphere of next year’s most wide-open presidential election race for 80 years is bound to combine with increasingly grim economic conditions to lure at least some American politicians into stoking protectionist sentiment. The pressures will only be heightened by developments such as the recent sight of China bailing out revered Wall Street institutions. Even those political leaders committed to free trade will no doubt find it easier to avoid making that case in a climate that will offer plenty of other issues to campaign on.
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In the tough times ahead, we forget these truths at our peril. Even as they grapple with the big economic challenges of the coming year, it will be vital that our leaders remember them. They must strive for a successful conclusion to the Doha talks. And they must confront, rather than appease, those who peddle mercantilist nonsense that presents trade as a zero-sum game in which the West is the loser. A retreat into protectionism will risk turning the coming economic crunch into a crisis, if not a catastrophe.
I suggest reading the comments - some very good points from The Times' readers.
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